This has been the worst flu season we’ve had in more than a decade. Outpatient visits and hospitalizations are higher than at any time in the last 15 years. This year’s flu season is categorized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as "high severity". The CDC says there have been at least 40 million flu illnesses, 520,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths from flu so far this season.
Children have been hit especially hard. As of March 1, 114 children have died from the flu. Most were unvaccinated. There’s also been an increase in flu- related neurological complications in children, including seizures and hallucinations.
What Made This Season's Flu So Severe?
This year’s flu vaccine provides about the same protection as in recent seasons, but it is now late in the typical season. As time goes on, flu vaccine protection starts to wane. Flu vaccination rates are down, and anti-vaccination sentiment has played a role in the reduced vaccination coverage.
Current data suggest the season has peaked. Seasonal influenza activity remains elevated nationally, but fortunately flu activity has been decreasing for 5 consecutive weeks.
What Will Next Year's Flu Season Look Like?
Most flu vaccine is still grown in eggs. That takes time. The flu shot formula usually changes each year. Flu experts convene, evaluate what has been circulating, and try to anticipate what will be circulating for the following season.
The World Health Organization (WHO) usually meets in February and makes their suggestions as to next season’s flu vaccine formula. The United States has participated in these meetings in the past, but President Trump has now pulled the United States out of the WHO.
Fortunately, US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officials were still allowed to participate virtually in the WHO’s flu vaccine composition meeting. The WHO has now gone on record with its recommendation for next year’s new flu vaccine formula, but the FDA ultimately determines the formula for the US flu vaccine version.
Determining Next Season’s Flu Vaccine Formula
The usual chain of events is after the WHO meets and makes its recommendation, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VBRBAC) — the FDA’s independent advisory committee — then has a special meeting of its own to give advice and help finalize the US formula for next year’s flu vaccine.
But that didn’t happen this year: The VBRPAC meeting was cancelled.
However, FDA officials said this cancellation should not delay the formulation of the flu vaccine for next season. On Thursday, March 13, the FDA approved the 2025-2026 influenza vaccine formula— without the input of its expert advisory committee, VBRPAC.
H5N1 Bird Flu: An Emerging Threat
Now we have more than just seasonal influenza to worry about. The first human case of H5N1 (bird flu) in the United States was detected in 2022. In March 2024, it was detected in dairy cows. The disease has already infected at least 973 cow herds across 17 states. So far, there have been 70 confirmed human cases of bird flu and one human death from bird flu in the United States.
At this time, human cases of bird flu have been mostly among poultry or dairy workers. However, bird flu is not just for birds or cows. Cats, rats, dogs, and other mammals can get it, too. There’s also concern that people who may have been infected with bird flu are not getting tested, making it difficult to get an accurate estimate of bird flu prevalence.
A Vaccine for Bird Flu?
On one of the final days of the Biden Administration, Moderna received a $590 million contract from the Department of Health and Human Services to develop a bird flu vaccine. News reports say that the contract, which was issued in December 2024, is now under review by the new administration and may be in jeopardy. This sparks worries about the United States' preparedness for a potential bird flu pandemic.
We know that mRNA vaccines can be made quickly. The Moderna agreement was seen by many as key to the quick approval of an H5N1 vaccine. But these meeting cancellations, these new policy changes, and these unknowns trigger much worry about what comes next. And if we do have a pandemic, will we be ready?
COMMENTARY
Will We See a Bird Flu Vaccine Next Year?
DISCLOSURES
| April 03, 2025This has been the worst flu season we’ve had in more than a decade. Outpatient visits and hospitalizations are higher than at any time in the last 15 years. This year’s flu season is categorized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as "high severity". The CDC says there have been at least 40 million flu illnesses, 520,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths from flu so far this season.
Children have been hit especially hard. As of March 1, 114 children have died from the flu. Most were unvaccinated. There’s also been an increase in flu- related neurological complications in children, including seizures and hallucinations.
What Made This Season's Flu So Severe?
This year’s flu vaccine provides about the same protection as in recent seasons, but it is now late in the typical season. As time goes on, flu vaccine protection starts to wane. Flu vaccination rates are down, and anti-vaccination sentiment has played a role in the reduced vaccination coverage.
Current data suggest the season has peaked. Seasonal influenza activity remains elevated nationally, but fortunately flu activity has been decreasing for 5 consecutive weeks.
What Will Next Year's Flu Season Look Like?
Most flu vaccine is still grown in eggs. That takes time. The flu shot formula usually changes each year. Flu experts convene, evaluate what has been circulating, and try to anticipate what will be circulating for the following season.
The World Health Organization (WHO) usually meets in February and makes their suggestions as to next season’s flu vaccine formula. The United States has participated in these meetings in the past, but President Trump has now pulled the United States out of the WHO.
Fortunately, US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officials were still allowed to participate virtually in the WHO’s flu vaccine composition meeting. The WHO has now gone on record with its recommendation for next year’s new flu vaccine formula, but the FDA ultimately determines the formula for the US flu vaccine version.
Determining Next Season’s Flu Vaccine Formula
The usual chain of events is after the WHO meets and makes its recommendation, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VBRBAC) — the FDA’s independent advisory committee — then has a special meeting of its own to give advice and help finalize the US formula for next year’s flu vaccine.
But that didn’t happen this year: The VBRPAC meeting was cancelled.
However, FDA officials said this cancellation should not delay the formulation of the flu vaccine for next season. On Thursday, March 13, the FDA approved the 2025-2026 influenza vaccine formula— without the input of its expert advisory committee, VBRPAC.
H5N1 Bird Flu: An Emerging Threat
Now we have more than just seasonal influenza to worry about. The first human case of H5N1 (bird flu) in the United States was detected in 2022. In March 2024, it was detected in dairy cows. The disease has already infected at least 973 cow herds across 17 states. So far, there have been 70 confirmed human cases of bird flu and one human death from bird flu in the United States.
At this time, human cases of bird flu have been mostly among poultry or dairy workers. However, bird flu is not just for birds or cows. Cats, rats, dogs, and other mammals can get it, too. There’s also concern that people who may have been infected with bird flu are not getting tested, making it difficult to get an accurate estimate of bird flu prevalence.
A Vaccine for Bird Flu?
On one of the final days of the Biden Administration, Moderna received a $590 million contract from the Department of Health and Human Services to develop a bird flu vaccine. News reports say that the contract, which was issued in December 2024, is now under review by the new administration and may be in jeopardy. This sparks worries about the United States' preparedness for a potential bird flu pandemic.
We know that mRNA vaccines can be made quickly. The Moderna agreement was seen by many as key to the quick approval of an H5N1 vaccine. But these meeting cancellations, these new policy changes, and these unknowns trigger much worry about what comes next. And if we do have a pandemic, will we be ready?
Any views expressed above are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of WebMD or Medscape.
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